SALT LAKE CITY — Utah’s economy could be more affected by artificial intelligence than other states, according to a new study by the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
The study predicted that Salt Lake and Ogden-Clearfield would be among the 10 top regions in the United States for workforces impacted by artificial intelligence.
Up to this point, most research surrounding the impact of technology on employment has focused on the effect of automation on blue-collar jobs, like clerical, manufacturing or construction jobs.
But this report predicted that in the future, artificial intelligence will actually have the most profound impact on white-collar fields like law, engineering and science. That includes tech-based economies — like Utah’s Silicon Slopes.
“Among the most AI-exposed large metro areas are San Jose, California, Seattle, Salt Lake City and Ogden, Utah — all high-tech centers,” the study states.
What explains this shift in the types of jobs affected by artificial intelligence — and how will Utah and other states across the country be affected by it?
Who could be affected?
Much of the discussion about artificial intelligence’s potential impact on the future — whether optimistic or apocalyptic — lumps it in with other forms of automation, including robotics and software, the report states.
But the role of artificial intelligence in the future economy should be considered on its own, said Mark Knold, senior and supervising economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services.
That’s because artificial intelligence involves programming computers to perform tasks which, if done by humans, would require “intelligence,” such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, prediction or planning, as defined by the report.
This means that artificial intelligence could potentially replace jobs which involve not just what humans can do, but how humans think. That’s why artificial intelligence could threaten jobs that are typically considered “white collar”— because they primarily deal with human reasoning and problem solving, said Knold.
Artificial intelligence will be a “significant factor in the future work lives of relatively well-paid managers, supervisors and analysts,” the report states.
But Dan Ventura, professor of computer science at Brigham Young University, said that right now, artificial intelligence’s primary strength is in tasks involving pattern recognition, such as facial recognition or medical diagnostics, he said, and even those advancements have been subject to criticism for inaccuracy and racial bias.
“AI is getting really good at pattern recognition and finding patterns in data, better than humans in some cases,” said Ventura. “I can say with some level of confidence that the types of jobs that involve that kind of work are potentially vulnerable to being displaced by AI.”
But artificial intelligence is nowhere near being able to take on such complex tasks as making judgments and complex decisions, said Ventura. For example, artificial intelligence could detect the presence of a tumor — but it would take a human doctor to decide whether to operate, perhaps in concert with discussions with the patient or the patient’s family.
The kinds of jobs where there’s a lot more judgment, subjectivity, human impact, they aren’t even in the ballpark of being able to do something like that right now. — Dan Ventura
“The kinds of jobs where there’s a lot more judgment, subjectivity, human impact, they aren’t even in the ballpark of being able to do something like that right now,” said Ventura. “I don’t think those kinds of jobs are in any kind of danger in the near future,” he said.
The upshot
Both Ventura and Knold say AI shouldn’t be viewed only through the lens of fear.
While some industries are likely to be disrupted and some jobs will become obsolete, Ventura predicts, artificial intelligence could also actually create new jobs.
Those jobs could be complementary to work performed by artificial intelligence, such as quality control, or could involve making decisions about information produced through artificial intelligence. In some professions, artificial intelligence could speed up or take care of the “busy work,” said Ventura, leaving the human professionals more time and resources to focus on decision-making or qualitative analysis.
Knold added that demographic trends indicate that as the baby boomer generation ages out of the workforce, the younger generation — which is less populous — won’t supply enough workers to replace the jobs that the older generation has vacated, said Knold.
“In the future, when you have less human brains around, artificial brains could become more valuable and more profitable,” he said.
Artificial intelligence could help companies thrive even with less human workers, he said.
“The fear is that AI will replace workers and you’ll have higher unemployment,” said Knold. “But I think what it will do is help replace missing workers and not displace existing work.”
Ventura said that while making such predictions is important to help people start thinking about what careers and skills to build to be prepared for the future, as this technology is still rapidly developing, it’s very difficult to know how it might actually affect the workforce.
“It’s important to take this kind of analysis with a grain of salt,” said Ventura. “Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.”