There’s an old adage that goes, “Be careful what you wish for.” In the case of former President Donald Trump and his campaign, the wish was to paint President Joe Biden as old and incompetent.
But, not so old or so incompetent that he dropped out of the race. Their entire campaign has been based on the calculations they thought they needed to defeat the current president. They deliberated, poll-tested, prepared and took action, jumping on every stumble, hesitation or mis-statement. They’ve even set aside millions for an advertising blitz this fall.
According to Tim Alberta, writing in The Atlantic earlier this month, “only one thing could disrupt that plan: a change of candidates at the top.”
They just got it.
Fellow Atlantic writer McKay Coppins tweeted, “After a year of trying to convince America that Joe Biden was diminished and in cognitive decline, Trump campaign officials are getting worried that they might have been *too* successful.”
That potential scenario unfolded on Sunday, when President Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the race and endorsing Kamala Harris to be his successor.
Alberta posted shortly after Biden’s announcement, “That sound you hear is the Trump campaign ripping up a detailed, brilliant, and suddenly useless blueprint for beating Joe Biden.”
He followed up with a post that said, “Really cannot overstate how problematic this is for Trump’s operation. Everything they built was customized for a contest with Biden. And I mean ... *everything.*”
Since Biden withdrew his candidacy, the race will require a dramatic reset, Alberta wrote less than two weeks ago. Not just for the Democrats, but for Trump’s campaign as well. Even though the top two people running Trump’s campaign told Alberta that “any Democratic replacement would inherit the president’s deficiencies,” and that the Trump blueprint for victory would remain unchanged, Alberta writes that they know that’s not true. “They know their campaign has been engineered in every way — from the voters they target to the viral memes they create — to defeat Biden. And privately, they are all but praying that he remains their opponent.”
That tracks with the responses Sam Benson got from some in the Utah delegation at the RNC convention last week. Rep. Blake Moore told Benson that Biden “would be the likely easiest candidate to beat” and Burgess Owens said, “As a Republican ... run, Joe, run.”
Even though Harris has Biden’s endorsement, that does not necessarily mean that she will be the only Democratic candidate to appear before DNC delegates. She — and any other candidate who may run — will be choosing a vice-presidential candidate before Aug. 7. That date comes before the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19-22. The DNC is holding an early, virtual roll call this year because of a law in Ohio (recently changed) that requires nominees to be finalized 90 days before the election.
The VP rumor mill is running wild, of course, with Pete Buttigieg in the mix, along with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. More names I’ve already heard: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. Also mentioned is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Raphael Warnock. Probably not Mitt Romney, however, in spite of Aaron Sorkin’s suggestion that he become the Democrats’ presidential pick.
So who will pick the nominee? Just like we saw at last week’s RNC, it will be the delegates to the DNC. Typically, delegates will choose (and are sometimes bound to choose) the primary winner in their state. Now that the candidate who won the primaries is no longer in the race, all his delegates have become free agents. There is no calendar issue, either. No state currently requires major parties to certify their presidential ticket earlier than Aug. 21. (Ohio, as mentioned, just changed their law).
The election is in 107 days. Having Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket will allay fears that the candidate is “too old” and “too feeble.” In fact, Donald Trump is now the oldest presidential nominee in history and is about 20 years older than Harris. Republicans are largely united behind the Trump/Vance ticket, but Harris could be the unifying influence the party has needed. Reports indicate Democrats brought in $5 million in just over an hour following Biden’s announcement.
At this point, only one thing is certain. Any October surprise is going to have to involve space aliens.