HAVANA — The tanks are in place. The missile launchers are ready to move. The jet fighters and attack helicopters are set to take off.
Cuba is planning to hold its first military parade in more than a decade Saturday, and the guest of honor is supposed to be ailing leader Fidel Castro, who has not appeared in public since he temporarily ceded power almost four months ago.
While reporters from all over the globe are rushing in to cover the event, which is being held in part to belatedly celebrate Castro's 80th birthday, Cubans are reacting to the military parade and the possible re-emergence of Castro with befuddlement, frustration and a collective shrug.
Many Cubans have come to believe that Castro is terminally ill and will never return to power. They now have set their sights beyond him, toward hopes for economic reforms and a political opening that would ease the daily grind and government controls that govern life in this impoverished island nation.
"It's a political show," said a 50-year-old Cuban intellectual who asked not to be identified out of fear of government retribution. "Nobody cares that much. They may watch it on television, but their main concern is surviving everyday life."
Diplomats in Havana say one reason for the lack of interest in the birthday celebrations that began Tuesday is that Cubans have been kept in the dark about Castro's health.
Since his July 31 announcement temporarily ceding power, Castro has appeared only infrequently in photographs and brief videos. Cuban authorities have not disclosed the nature of Castro's illness, other than saying he underwent intestinal surgery and is recuperating.
"If people knew that he had cancer and had only one month to live, they could feel something," said one Havana-based diplomat who asked not to be identified. "Because there is no information, there is no reaction. The nation is not part of the collective suffering of their leader."
But some Cubans are baffled by the decision to celebrate Castro's birthday — and mark the 50th anniversary of the landing of the Granma, the ship that brought Fidel Castro and 81 others from Mexico to Cuba to begin the guerrilla war that toppled the government in 1959 — with a giant military parade through Havana's Revolutionary Plaza.
Adorned with portraits of revolutionary heroes including Ernesto "Che" Guevara, Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin, the immense plaza will be the site of the parade featuring 300,000 participants, including uniform-clad schoolchildren, and a plethora of Soviet-era armament.
"What does this have to do with Fidel's birthday?" asked a 44-year-old Cuban journalist. "Are they trying to demonstrate a show of force with ancient equipment? It's copying what the Soviets used to do. It doesn't make sense."
The journalist suggested the event is being staged for the international news media.
Yet some diplomats argue that the military parade is designed to show Cubans that the nation's influential and respected armed forces remain united behind the government, which is now being led by Raul Castro, Fidel's younger brother and the island's longtime defense minister.
Analysts also say the military parade is meant as a signal to the United States and other nations that the Raul Castro-led government is firmly in control even though many Cubans dislike the younger Castro and express doubt that he can govern effectively.
"The U.S. government wants to have a Cuba that gradually changes but where stability and security is of primary concern," said a second Havana-based diplomat. "They have so much on their plate now with the Middle East, North Korea. Why would they want another crisis only 90 miles from their shores?"
But the tenor of the event also is confusing to many Cubans. Are the carefully scripted festivities a birthday celebration or a goodbye party for a leader who is both beloved and despised by many of the island's 11 million residents?
Taking an obituary-like tone, state-run Cuban newspapers have been publishing lengthy biographical stories about Castro's extraordinary life, while television stations rebroadcast historical footage of his triumphant moments.
Many older Cubans already are grieving what they believe is Castro's imminent demise and taking stock of his legacy even as younger Cubans identify little with the revolution or Castro.
The Cuban journalist said he avoids talking with his 70-year-old father, a veteran of the rebel war and a Castro supporter, about Castro's failures because it would be "too painful" for his father.
"It would force him to speak about the unspeakable," the journalist explained. "He sacrificed his whole life for this. My dad holds on to the illusion that things will be better."
The 50-year-old intellectual said in recent months he misses listening to Castro's speeches and continues to admire Castro for fostering Cubans' sense of pride and nationalism.
But he laments that his 20-year-old son takes for granted the revolution's successes in education and health care and only thinks about material possessions.
"My son asks for clothes from Adidas and Banana Republic," the intellectual said. "When he goes to the hospital and it's free, he assumes that's a natural thing and it's not. When I talk to him about this, he says I'm giving a political speech."
A 53-year-old retired army officer said he "loves Fidel" for his humanist ideals and the "impact he had on the Third World and among oppressed people."
But the retired lieutenant colonel cursed Castro for placing ideology ahead of pragmatism, for cultivating a climate of fear on the island, for sacking those few advisers who dared to challenge him and for creating a desperate economic environment where Cubans are forced to steal and engage in black market activities to make ends meet.
"Fidel has great ideas for the world," the veteran said. "He talks about justice and fairness. But internally, domestic life in this country is unbearable."
Experts say Raul Castro has placed loyalists in key positions and is increasing Communist Party control over government institutions in preparation to implement economic reforms to lift living standards once his brother is gone.
They argue that Raul Castro recognizes he does not have the historical weight and charisma of his brother and is aware through party militants of the widespread discontent among Cubans.
"The history of totalitarian regimes is that while the leader is on his deathbed, nothing changes," explained the second diplomat, referring to China in the final days under Mao Tse-tung and Spain under Francisco Franco.
"Once the leader dies there is a psychological break. The people around him make changes to meet people's expectations," the diplomat said.
Yet while the Cuban intellectual is convinced that such changes are on the horizon, other Cubans say their hope of a better life has vanished after so many years of hardship.
"While the country is waiting, people are ground down to the point of having no expectations," the Cuban journalist said. "What could be worse?"